What will be different in the future, in your opinion? What will spatial and urban planning have to take into consideration?

We have to distinguish between growing and shrinking cities in different parts of the world. In Germany, for example, and several other European countries, factors such as demographic change are leading to a decline in population. This has an effect on cities in these regions, which will face completely different problems in comparison with megacities. When we look at Europe, for example, we see certain processes of growth that are only related to certain regions. In these places the population is growing in spite of the fact that the population as a whole is shrinking. Whereas in other regions there will be a double decline: the natural process of declining population plus emigration. This is a doubly negative process, from which differing conditions for traffic within these regions will result.

Can you give us a specific example of how traffic will change?

The volume of traffic, i.e. tailbacks and other traffic problems, will decline in the areas with a falling population. At the same time there will be more exchange, and thus an increase in commuting. The reason is that the people who remain in these areas will no longer find jobs – there will be even fewer jobs than today. For these regions the question arises of “How can I handle such commuting distances?” This development will lead to changed behavior and changed needs in relation to transport.

In comparison to this, how does the future look for big cities and densely populated conurbations around the world?

If you look at the areas of really big growth, for example megacities in Asia and North America, where growth is happening because people are moving to these places and because there is population growth too, then it becomes evident that the foremost task in respect of mobility is: How can we get individual traffic switched to public transportation? The true difficulty in these regions is to keep control. A lot of roads are being built there, and everyone wants individual mobility. Ideally by car. This is also a question of image, as it was in Europe 50 or 80 years ago. What has to be achieved is to make it an issue in urban planning that people leave their cars and are integrated into public transport systems. However, in megacities we are still far away from such a trend. On the contrary: Traffic is the main topic there, and in these places traffic does not mean mobility but individual traffic.

Where is this going to end?

In many places there are simply endless tailbacks, for example in big cities like Istanbul and Mumbai. Nevertheless, people remain in their cars. What has to be done is to shift at least the share of individual traffic in these growth regions towards public transport. Often this does not work, however, to the detriment of public transport. Of course everyone says “that’s wrong!” Everyone sees the problems and considers: How can I plan traffic sensibly, how can I conceive a system so that a subway, a local train and a bus network operate well and the prices are right? At the same time, the quality of individual mobility and the image mindset that people have are called into question. Regardless of how people move around and in which spaces, the decisive point is having a rational scheme of spatial planning. In Shanghai, a city that I have often visited, there is a strong trend for public transport to decline in favor of individual transport. They have extremely strong urban growth and are building more and more roads, even one above the other, and they are all stuck in tailbacks.

"Shanghai shows a strong trend for public transport to decline in favor of individual transport", says Professor Dr. Gerhard Steinebach.

© Professor Dr. Gerhard Steinebach

Studies maintain that there is a trend away from the car as a status symbol …

In Europe yes, but definitely not in Asia. This situation will remain so in the near future. All the talk from developed countries of “don’t make the same mistake that we made, free yourselves from this status symbol” is well intentioned, but these countries want to and have to go through this development for themselves first of all. “Don’t use so much oil and coal, it pollutes the environment” – to which they reply “Yes, what about our economic growth, how will we achieve that? You are already rich, and we are expected to burn less of the coal that we need for our economic growth, whereas you have done exactly that in the last 50 years to get where you are today.“ And when you continue that way of thinking in regard to status symbols: “So we should do less driving, while you have been driving your luxurious cars for years?“ Of course we should be fair here, and not demand too much. Especially when you see how many horsepower the internal combustion engines have that people in Europe and the USA still drive around with, and how we show off with them.

What about electric cars?

The problem with electric cars so far is that they are not yet suitable for long distances. Perhaps the future – thinking of my own now – will be that we drive an electric car in the city for shopping and chores, use a car-sharing scheme for holidays, and for other journeys an electric bike. That would be a combination that I imagine would be attractive for people with a developed environmental awareness. But that is only my opinion. I don’t know how it would look if you did a representative survey, because when I look at the cars on the road, and see the size and power of what people drive when they want to be somebody, then I doubt that things will change quickly.

Professor Dr. Gerhard Steinebach teaches at the Techniche Universität in Kaiserslautern

© Technische Universität Kaiserslautern

How do you get around at the moment?

I’m a city dweller. My family and I do a lot on foot. This is also a visible trend: reurbanization. In part this has already been statistically demonstrated: A high proportion of the population is migrating back into the city from outside. These people travel more by bike. Ourselves, we still use the car as normal, but we are walking more and consciously leaving the car at home. But here you have to distinguish between cities of different sizes. You can’t make journeys on foot in every city. And you have to feel safe when you walk.

What kind of mobility do you enjoy most?

I used to enjoy driving the car. I am from the generation where it was normal to take a drive for pleasure. We didn’t go for a walk, the way we do today, but went for a drive. That means the whole family got into the car on Sunday afternoon and drove off – without a goal, we just drove around and stopped somewhere when we saw a nice café, and then drove on again. In those days I spent a lot of time repairing cars with my siblings, and took cars apart completely.

So it could be said that you are a car person.

Yes, but when you travel a lot for your job and want to work while you are traveling, you do without the experience of driving. That is why I do long-distance journeys by train. When you are at the wheel yourself, you can’t do anything. In the train I reserve a seat, settle down in comfort, and then I can work, sleep or eat. That is almost ideal. And all the talk about delays is greatly exaggerated. People should compare it with how much delay they have in their cars with all the hold-ups. For pleasure I ride my motorbike, but for me it is not a means of transport, as it is in a city like Mumbai, for example ,where people use it to get to work. Moving on two wheels has gone a step further there than in China, where you see more bikes. There the cultural development goes from walking to cycling to riding a motorbike to driving a car.

As a teacher how do you prepare your students for future urban developments?

The course of studies focuses on the themes of contraction and growth. Contraction especially in Germany and Europe. And growth regions internationally. We ask: Where are the growth processes and what kind of growth processes are they? And when you look at these processes, do they particularly apply to metropolitan regions, here in Europe too, as the number of cars on the road is increasing in spite of the declining population and against all predictions? So we have growth in traffic everywhere. The same is true of the number of vehicles, which is increasing, like the distances traveled: 40,000 km per person per year in the USA, 20,000 km in Asia. As a share of the global travel miles Asia is ahead of the USA, however, because it has more inhabitants.

What will the future planning of space look like in reaction to these growth processes?

It is hardly possible to imagine what this will look like and how planning will work. A great many slums will probably arise at first. Initially they will have to be cleared, and it will not be possible to build subway lines and bike paths as a first step.

The course of study provides future planners with an overview of the whole context, in order to be able to handle the challenges: patterns of settlement, ecology of settlement, water ecology, the construction industry, planning law, economics and statistics. This all has to be regarded holistically if you want to plan or redevelop cities. The key message to the students is the methodology, how to recognize the factors that define urban development. The boundaries are not precise, and the subject has to be approached across the board, involving many different disciplines with advanced knowledge transfer. It is important to realize how economic development is linked to transport and the environment. And the effects of, for example, noise and barriers against noise in climatic terms, because they changes the wind. It is also about the social perspective: Why do certain groups of people live in places that are particularly noisy? Because they want to be there, or for other reasons that have to be taken into consideration too? And what can you do for prevention, how can you change these things? Is it a question of income, or is it about proximity to certain institutions?

In relation to transport you then look at how the traffic situation and the shares of transport modes per person are developing, the share of individual transport as opposed to public transport. The aim is to include it all in an integrated concept for spatial development. Specifically that means: How wide is the road, how wide is the bike path, do you need a tree there, or a green strip between the bike path, the road and the pavement?

The purpose of spatial planning is therefore also to avoid wasting space and to optimize the use of space for everyone. Can you discern a general trend in the way we will handle the problem of space in the future?

It depends what kind of city you have in mind. Big cities ask different questions than small towns, for example: Is there enough space? Do you need alternatives to high-rises, such as tunnels beneath the ground? In my opinion the main problem is not that there is too little space but that growth processes are too fast and too little money is available. When you see how things are developing over time, it is clear that in future we will no longer have the problem that the world will be overpopulated, as we assumed in the 1960s and 1970s. We won’t have to go to the moon because there is no more room here. According to population figures that are already apparent, growth will flatten out in the region of ten billion inhabitants of the globe. This is shown by the birth rate per woman: 2.5 at present. Forecasts suggest a tendency to a normal rate of maintenance, i.e. two children per woman. With a time lag of about 50 to 100 years, as during the Industrial Revolution, this population trend can also be observed worldwide. We can assume that it will stay around ten billion.

"In Shangahi, they have extremely strong urban growth and are building more and more roads, even one above the other", says Professor Dr. Gerhard Steinebach.

© Professor Dr. Gerhard Steinebach

The question is, is 10 billion too high?

I think it won’t be, although uneven distribution will be a problem. In certain regions the population will be extremely dense. There will not be enough to eat for everyone here, and the spatial and supply conditions may not be right. Nevertheless, people go there, and no-one can prevent that. Despite borders. From a historical perspective this is almost comparable to the migration of peoples that took place in past ages, but for different reasons. So there will be an issue of uneven distribution. In other regions, where space and resources are plentiful, the population will live an affluent life. And then there will be people who want to return, because something is lacking where they are but available on the other side. And like a see-saw it will come back into equilibrium, and then tilt again.

What do you believe will happen in metropolitan regions in terms of urban planning?

Yes, chaos is a suitable word. In his book Planet of Slums Mike Davis has put forward a hypothesis. He says that the trend of immigration to megacities cannot be handled in any other way than through the appearance of slums to an extreme degree. This may be very pessimistic, but much of it is right, because population growth is too high in relation to financial resources. In this respect the question is not even: Should we build below ground or should we build high-rises? For this everything happens too quickly, and many of the affected regions don’t have the money. And even if they had the money, it would not work. In Istanbul, for example, the financing is available: 75% of the city’s spending is invested in infrastructure, especially transport, water supply and sewage. But the population growth in this city is so rapid that it is nevertheless impossible to keep up. They simply cannot build so much. They are constructing the equivalent of 3 km of subway per day, but in fact they would have to build 30 km per day to transport the population. Sooner or later you hit limits, because you can’t dig beneath the city or close streets everywhere at the same time. Then everything would come to a stop and the system would collapse. Here are the limits to development, and you can do the rest on paper or on a computer but not implement it. And in places where the money is not available, there is the added issue of time and speed. This then leads to the appearance of slums.

What are your wishes for future mobility?

First of all, post-fossil mobility, meaning a shift away from oil and coal towards renewable components. This would perhaps promote more the idea that “power doesn’t only come out of the socket, but has to be generated.”

The second thing would be a different approach to space, i.e. “shared space“. By this I mean encouraging different forms of mobility in parallel: cars, bikes, electro-bikes and pedestrians. Perhaps they should not be allowed to move in a chaotic, mixed-up way, in the manner of “everyone goes where he or she wants”. This could happen by means of lines or curbs, or perhaps by then there will be technical ways of signaling. That an electric car can only drive within certain corridors, otherwise the engine cuts out – and all of this controlled electronically. Or there would be even more automatic warning signals,so that I can’t drive in certain areas because of pedestrian crossings, because my car simply stops.

And the third component is even more closely linked to technical developments: a virtually networked city, where I basically influence mobility schemes in the city myself by being able to order mobility at any place using a mobile device. It would show me where the nearest available car is, or the car would be brought to me, or I see the nearest place where I can get a bike. That has to happen with the service included. This means answering the questions: Which vehicle takes me to my desired destination best, or should I just walk there? And how will the things that I buy there be transported, and how can I transport them myself – simply, what options are at my disposal? So everything depends on the availability of Internet, which enables me to call on certain services individually at the moment when I need them. Individuality is the most important thing for freedom of movement, because mobility is often about time pressure, and is often a pure necessity.

Close to heaven: expressways in the center of Taipei

© Johanna Wittmaack

Taipei has a population of 2.6 million on an area of some 270 square kilometers; this means a density of almost 10,000 people per square kilometer. It is clear that a city like this needs an intricately branching and effective road network to prevent traffic from coming to a standstill. Those who visit the city for the first time may walk through the streets in amazement and be swallowed up by all the noise and bustle – and nevertheless immediately feel they have understood something of the city’s traffic system.

The highway leading into the city is accompanied by a second road, built approximately ten meters higher. On the main traffic arteries there are even up to four levels, layered one above the other. The sky-scraping expressways are especially impressive: they are fast routes leading through the city, but have only a few exits. If you miss an exit, you have to drive a long extra distance. In the middle there are main roads with somewhat more turn-offs; and at the bottom are the normal main roads, which branch out into a fine capillary system of side roads and tracks.

A sea of noise and tail lights

Moped riders wait in a zone reserved for them until the traffic lights change to green

© Johanna Wittmaack

Even on the normal roads, however, not all traffic is equal. For example, in Taipei buses run on special lanes. But even in the general mayhem of the public traffic lanes there is a hierarchy: moped riders are permitted to drive up to a zone specially reserved for them at traffic lights. To an outsider, who perceives the trend to smaller and smaller cars in European cities, it looks as if an attractive way has been found of inducing people to use the smallest vehicles possible – a moped carrying one or two persons instead of an almost empty car.

However, in truth the background to this is completely different, as Jason Chang, professor at the National Taiwan University and an adviser to the Taipei City Government in questions of transport policy and development, explains: “In the 1970s there was a significantly high number of accidents in Taipei due to the large number of mopeds and the confusing traffic situation. As a research assistant I therefore worked with a research group that was developing means of prevention. The stopping spaces in front of traffic lights were part of this: although the moped riders have priority, they have to wait for a special green light, for example, in order to make a turn off. We presented the scheme in 1985 – but the rule did not come into force until 1995. And then only because the chief of the Taipei traffic police at that time had listened to the lecture and was enthusiastic about the idea even then!”

Up to four road levels are layered, one above the other

© Johanna Wittmaack

Now the streets of Taipei have become unthinkable without this system, which gives visitors an impressive experience: when the light changes from red to green, it seems as if all hell has broken loose. As if in unison, all the engines roar, the moped riders sprint off, and the cars zoom along behind. A sea of noise and tail lights.

Higher, faster, further?

Could it be that the expressways too were originally built for a completely different reason than to divide the traffic as effectively as possible? “The first expressway was built to connect the first Taiwanese freeway to the city,” says Jason Chang. “But they have not been a success. They do not reduce the traffic during peak times. Apart from that they cut through the city and raise high the completely wrong people: those who drive a car instead of using public transport!” For him the future of traffic is therefore close to the ground, in the buses – and the metro system, which is entirely people-centered. In recent years the government has terminated two projects of elevated expressways in the city while putting bus lane and HOV (high occupancy vehicle) facilities on an expressway connecting city center and residential area.

If you are out and about in Taipei, you hardly notice them, in fact, because drivers do indeed use the lowest, multi-lane road most of the time, even though this involves hold-ups. It is unusual to get a “green wave”, i.e. the chance to drive through several traffic lights one after the other on green. Even outside the rush hour, cars stand in lines in front of and behind you, while mopeds snake their way through the stationary traffic. You benefit from the expressways only on trips to neighboring cities. In view of this, events like New Year’s Eve 2013, when the Taipei metro carried 2.06 million passengers in a single night, make it clear that expressways cannot be the solution for inner-city mobility.

Vision by Höweler+Yoon Architecture, "Shareway On The Platform"

© Höweler+Yoon Architecture

In Berlin and New York, too, traffic moves on elevated routes – however, they have never been used by cars, but by rail traffic. This is precisely the principle to which the architects Höweler + Yoon had recourse when they developed their proposals for the Audi Urban Future Award 2012. Their visuals show, for example, suspended rail vehicles that move through the city and make their mark on its appearance. However, the architects did not merely to take up existing concepts – they aim to make them fit for future needs, as workshops in the course of this year demonstrate.

In contrast to the expressways, their routes high above people’s heads are not made for individual traffic: they link the transport of goods and passengers. Trains will depart from a hub in Newark, according to their vision. Along the way individual modules can split off and use a many-branched network, until finally each part of the train reaches its destination. However, people and goods share the route for as long as possible. This reduces the environmental impact – and the noise of thousands of engines is abolished. If the system is sufficiently differentiated, roads as we know them could become obsolete; Höweler + Yoon have for example proposed a surface that could be changed as required from a road to a lawn.

"Shareway" concept by Höweler + Yoon Architecture

© Audi Urban Future Initiative

In Taipei, by the way, this has already happened – though once and for all. The metro stations have been designed to be as inviting as possible, and some of them have been greened. In contrast to the expressways they do not separate residents on the two sides of the street. They bring them together.

Joi Ito is a creative all-round talent. He studied physics and is the founder and managing director of the venture capital company Neoteny Co., Ltd., which mainly invests in new Internet technologies. Ito is also a board member of several innovative companies, writes a regular blog and even looks good as a DJ. It is simply fun to listen to this entrepreneur with a lively mind, because in spite of many years of experience he has not lost the ability to get excited about new things, to remain curious and to tackle his tasks with lots of optimism. His enthusiasm and openness are genuinely infectious and inspiring – just what people imagine a true mentor to be like. Those who work and research under his leadership at MIT Media Lab, a leading university for technology and communication, can consider themselves fortunate.

Joi Ito, head of the MIT Media Lab in Cambridge (Massachusetts)

© Martin Lewicki

His address to the Ideas City Festival was primarily about the untapped capital of the Internet. But along the way he could not resist making repeated calls for more courage and willingness to take risks, because these are two fundamental characteristics of making innovations and finding creative solutions for difficult tasks.

Before Internet – After Internet

He divides the Internet timeline into two distinct parts: BI (Before Internet) and AI (After Internet). Many people will agree with his description of life before Internet as relatively simple and manageable. Life before the WWW was based on clear rules and structures that people could rely on. In the phase after the Internet, many rules and structures were broken up: Life became more unpredictable, and too complex and fast-paced for some. The Internet was also responsible for flat hierarchies, which permit more scope for creativity and the ability to react faster on the one hand, but require that everyone takes on more responsibility and acquires additional capabilities.

Joi Ito, the principles of AI – After Internet

© Martin Lewicki

In his talk Ito did not discuss in more detail the downside of AI, but for many the Internet means an increasing burden, something which has meanwhile been proved. Permanent availability, reading work emails in your free time and the flood of information, not least a consequence of social media, can be too much for some people. Recently companies have tried to protect their employees from excessive stress, and even recommend them not to read work emails in their leisure time. At Volkswagen, for example, emails are no longer forwarded to employees’ smartphones 30 minutes after the end of the working day.

Practice before theory

Joi Ito however focuses on a different phenomenon of the AI age: the change in behavior with regard to innovation. Today it is possible to develop innovations without great financial investment and to start up even before providers of capital are found. “First you do something, and you ask for money afterwards,” Ito explains. This is possible thanks to the reduction in innovation costs. “Practice before theory“ is his creed.

The costs of trying something out in the IT business are relatively low, for example if you want to develop a service like Twitter. To do that you only have to tap into your network and involve the world around you. Many people in the creative and IT sectors are willing to develop something motivated by their passion, without a financial reward. You only have to be well networked and share a passion for something.

Joi Ito, head of the MIT Media Lab in Cambridge (Massachusetts)

© Martin Lewicki

Ito quickly comes to one of his main points: “Risk is important. You have to take risks.” We all know the example of the mother warning her child about the hot stove. Ito says that he was one of those inquisitive children who touched the hot stove despite the warning and risked getting burned. However, for him this was an important part of learning. You should not shelter people too much, because this deprives them of a large part of the learning process.

Agility is also extremely important in a constantly changing environment. People should liberate themselves from the idea of wanting to plan everything. Instead you have to incorporate happy coincidences into the planning and take advantage of them. In this way fast networks which arise spontaneously can generate great creative potential even without much planning and thus have a big effect. He calls this “the power of pull”.

Believe in reality, not theory

One outstanding example by Ito is the aid program Safecast that he set up after the nuclear disaster in Fukushima in 2011. Without having a plan, he networked with his friends in order to help people in Japan. One major problem at that time was measuring radioactivity on the spot, because not enough Geiger counters were available and there were consequently too few measuring points. His network therefore decided to help people through Geiger counters and freely available measurement data. Without specialist knowledge of the subject they succeeded within a very short time in developing simple Geiger counters that they could send to people in Japan. Within a few months the crowd-sourcing measurement network Safecast had over a million data points in Japan – many times more than what the Japanese government made available. The start-up capital for this brilliant idea, by the way, came from the crowdfunding portal Kickstarter.

Ito’s mind is extremely agile. He positively bubbles with ideas and examples for his theories. He encourages people to take charge of things themselves, to shape and design them. As quick as lightning he makes the connection between his theory and urban development. He thinks it makes no sense to try to solve structural urban problems from outside. The solutions have to come from within. People should be able to design their own residential area themselves, as they know their own needs best. For that reason creativity and passion have to be promoted and people encouraged to do what they like doing most. “I believe in reality, not theory,” is how Ito explains his approach to tackling things spontaneously without a plan.

As an example he cites Detroit, a city with major problems. He and his institute have tried to analyze and tackle the problems together. In doing so they quickly realized that people in the problem areas of Detroit are tired of hearing big promises from outside helpers. The residents want to get involved themselves and work on the solutions together.

One significant problem in Detroit has proved to be the lack of street lights. Ito and his team set out to find a way of making efficient solar lights, ideally with a do-it-yourself solution. This is a striking example of how important it is to seek individual solutions in cooperation with the people who are affected and to pay attention to people’s needs. Within a community the network is everything, as people can only achieve something by working together. Here too the Internet can help people to network better and come together.

Ito’s talk is full of idealism and optimism. He encourages his audience to take more initiative and risks themselves, to be agile and creative. The Internet seems to be the ideal medium for this, and its resources are far from having been fully exploited. It helps people to create networks in a flash, to implement decisions instantly, to put ideas into practice with low investment, while remaining constantly lean and mobile –it is an ideal instrument for making innovation happen. However, it is not easy to play this instrument, and only the best virtuosos succeed in creating true masterpieces. Joi Ito is undoubtedly one of them, and a great inspiration for all those who want to follow his lead. There is no doubt that the Internet provides a lot of untapped capital for creative treasure hunters.

The European city with the highest proportion of traffic by bike: In Copenhagen one person in two pedals to work or school. 

Photo: Troels Heien   Source: www.kk.dk/cityofcyclists

No vehicle deserves a low-emission certificate as much as a bicycle. However, many people find it easier to get into the saddle in the country and in small towns than in that busy monster, the big city. Amidst the hooting and hassling there, it’s the car that wins when push comes to shove. And the fact is that in 2050, 70 percent of people worldwide will be living in cities and megacities. If a culture of cycling is going to hold its own in tomorrow’s cities, in order to ease the pressure on traffic and the environment, urban planners will have to take a good many things into consideration in future. Their aim is to make bike-friendly cities – places where cyclists feel safe and enjoy stepping on the pedals because they know it will be a pleasant journey. So what exactly is involved when an urban planner wants to make an automobile city into a bike city? “In principle you have to approach it in exactly the same way as you used to do for motorized vehicles, “ explains Prof. Dr.-Ing. Gerhard Steinebach, who has the chair of Spacial and Environmental Planning at the Technische Universität Kaiserslautern in southwest Germany.

“Like cars, bikes need their own lanes, which have to be marked and separated.“

^{Prof. Dr.-Ing. Gerhard Steinebach}

This can be done either in the form of special bike paths or by using so-called bike protection lanes that allow cycle traffic to flow along the street. This prevents bikes and motorized vehicles from getting in each other’s way, which makes the journey safer. In cities where he has seen good infrastructure for bikes, Prof. Steinebach has usually observed “a long tradition of cycling, favorable topographical conditions, planning for safety, and that cycling is rooted in society. When people in a city are used to bikes, they also behave differently towards each other. “Inconsiderate behavior and lack of interest in rules are often the issue between cyclists and other traffic participants.“ If you never see anyone on a bike, you don’t have the confidence to cycle yourself because of a stronger fear that people have no consideration for bikes and underestimate their vulnerability.

But there is much more to a bicycle city: For pedaling to be really fun, it is necessary to give it priority. For example, it is helpful to officially allow cyclists to use certain areas of a pedestrian zone or to go along a one-way street in both directions. “Often car drivers get angry about that. But they are forgetting one distinction: A cyclist moves by powering himself. If a car has to take a detour, the driver simply puts his foot on the gas pedal.“ One further ingredient that is essential in the recipe for a bike-friendly city is space. Cyclists have to keep a distance in order to be able to travel safely. In megacities like Istanbul, Mumbai or Shanghai this could become a problem, because there is too little space there anyway for all the people who want to get around. “You need more space for a hundred people on bikes than for a hundred people who go by bus.” Moreover, bikes are slower and the volume of traffic in kilometers is lower, while the distances in large cities can hardly be overcome on a bike.“Pedaling 30 kilometers to work just like that is not what people want. They would do that in their leisure time. Or perhaps with an electric-powered bike.“ Professor Steinebach thinks large metropolises are unsuitable for a further, quite different reason, as far as bike-friendliness is concerned: “I wouldn’t travel by bike there. Because of the air pollution alone. I often visit cities like Shanghai, and they have a lot of problems there with fog, smog and other pollution.”

Urban planners are considering what is the safest way to integrate transport by bicycle into city traffic, in order to increase the number of cyclists. 

Photo: Troels Heien   Source:www.kk.dk/cityofcyclists

Copenhagen, on the other hand, ticks all the boxes in terms of being bike-friendly. Cycling culture is thriving here. Half of the inhabitants go to work or school by bike. The Danish capital is regarded as a model for the whole world, as the bike-friendliest city. Bike paths, bridges, parking garages and highways characterize the face of the city. Marie Kastrup, the spokesperson of IBIKECPH.dk, attributes this in a video to the long history of cycling culture in Copenhagen: “Since the energy crisis in the late seventies, the city of Copenhagen has been investing massively in the bicycling infrastructure“. In this way the culture of cycling has grown in the course of years. The effects on life in the city are plain to see: People move about a lot without emissions and without taking up space on the roads for cars. People are healthy because they exercise and because the air is better, and also the natural environment in Copenhagen is less polluted than in other cities of a similar size. For transporting several people or large items, special solutions have been created that occupy the streets instead of cars. Occasionally you see a rickshaw rolling past, or one of the cargo bikes that the people of Copenhagen affectionately call a “Long John“. One major factor driving Copenhagen’s cycling project is the generally very high level of environmental awareness in Scandinavian countries, which is evident in numerous state subsidies to promote electromobility, for example.

The “Long John” cargo bike has been on the streets of Copenhagen since the 1930s. 

Photo: Troels Heien   Source:www.kk.dk/cityofcyclists

The USA, by contrast, is known for its automobile culture. However, the remarkable example of the city of Portland in the state of Oregon shows that there are alternatives. Portland is one of the few American cities where you don’t need a car. It has been described as the greenest city in the USA. Two components combined in planning the cycling infrastructure for Portland: The population was growing constantly, and across the board the state of Oregon had a high environmental awareness in its investments. In order to reduce the emissions produced by cars, an alternative means of transport had to be found that favored the environment: “Biking was something that really made that happen,“ as Rob Sadowsky, director of the Bicycle Transportation Alliance of Portland says to US Today in a video. Last year Portland was again voted the number-one bike city in the USA by Bicycling magazine. This is despite the fact that it rains at least one third of the year there. Nevertheless, around six percent of residents commute to work daily by bicycle. The criteria for awarding Portland top status are its well-developed infrastructure for bikes (180 miles of bike paths on the roads and 79 miles of separate bike paths), a living cycling culture (parking spaces for bikes, repair workshops, and the ability to take bikes on trains). Jennifer Dill, director of the Oregon Transportation Research Institute, explains the city planners’ principle to US today in a video: “The planners here are not trying to force you out of your car, they are trying to give you an option.” So when people in Portland want to move from A to B, they can choose between the car, the bike or public transportation. “Instead of leaving in a place where the only reasonable decision is to drive your car. Which is the way many American cities are.” Rob Sadowsky points out a sign that that cycling has become rooted in society in Portland: “Some of the bars that have bicycle racks that replace one single parking spot with twelve are some of the most popular bars in town.“ It will be interesting to see how long Portland can stay in first place in the USA as the cyclists’ city, as other American cities are following its lead. Second place was awarded to Minnesota, which in 2010 was the first city in the USA to initiate a bike-sharing system and in 2011 opened the first “bike freeway” in the United States.

Experts are convinced that it is still possible to establish a culture of cycling in many cities. However, this does not happen on its own. Time and money are needed, and that is exactly what the cities most affected by traffic chaos do not have. Professor Steinebach too doubts that it is possible to increase the amount of travel by bike in big Asian cities in particular. “Because if, in planning terms and on a large scale, it is difficult to create a properly functioning network of public local transport, which does after all move large numbers of people much quicker, then I have major doubts about whether this will work for bikes.“ Nevertheless, it should be attempted, because the benefit to the environment, the thinning out of traffic volume, and not least the greater life expectancy are good reasons to start right away.

“The city is the most complex thing ever made by humans,” says Mark Wigley, head of the Extreme Cities Project. “And in future it will be much more complex than today. We need to find a way to use it productively,” he adds. In order to discuss the city of the future and to discern trends, first of all existing structures have to be defined and understood. Only then can we use existing and newly emerging resources. In harmony with the theme of this year’s Ideas City Festival, Untapped Capital, the Extreme Cities Project is primarily concerned with showing the innovative potential of future urbanism.

Extreme Cities Project: Luca de Meo, Member of the Board of Management for Sales and Marketing (left), Anne Guiney, Executive Director of the Institute for Urban Design (middle) ,Mark Wigley, Dean of Columbia University`s Graduate School of Architecture, Planning and Preservation (right)

© Audi Urban Future Initiative

The unique partnership between Columbia University and the Audi Urban Future Initiative has borne fruit in the form of the five hypotheses that were presented. They explain “why the city is such a remarkable human invention,” says Wigley. “Asymmetric mobility”, “complexity”, “migration”, “generosity” and “transgenerational capacity” are the five principal factors and most essential principles of urban density that shape cities and evolve them further.

Migration: Signage in Flushing, Queens (NYC)

© 2013 C-Lab/Columbia University

The five hypotheses

In the following articles on our website you will find detailed explanations of the individual hypotheses of Columbia University. In summary it can be said that “asymmetric mobility” stands for the varied and flexible use of modes of transportation for getting around in everyday life. In future this could be even simpler, more efficient and richer in terms of experience. “Complexity” arises through the enormous concentration of knowledge in the urban environment. Diverse classes, ethnic groups and multicultural ideas encounter each other in cities. In future high potential for innovation could emerge from the exchange of data and ideas.

“Migration” is what makes cities possible in the first place and continually changes the identity of a city through the inflow of migrants. In future this flow between cities and within cities will increase and thus acceleration transformation. “Generosity” describes the contacts between people from which new impulses and new ideas arise. In metropolitan regions in the future, new forms of coexistence will be formed, for example a variety of communities, which will ultimately improve the city. And “transgenerational capacity” refers to the age range of the urban population. High life expectancy, in particular, requires that future cities develop provision of activities for the over-sixties on a large scale. The wide age range will set free new creative energies and push innovation ahead.

Generosity: A community garden in the East Village (NYC)

© 2013 C-Lab/Columbia University

More than an efficient machine for living

In addition to these five factors, one more thing is important, emphasizes Mark Wigley: “The city of the future has to be more than just an efficient machine for living.” Wigley and his research team thought long and hard about what is special about a city, what is its most essential characteristic. “And then, when we were in Istanbul last year for the presentation of the Audi Urban Future Award 2012, it suddenly became clear to me. When I saw this city and all its people, I knew: the neighborhood is what it is about, that is what people love about cities,” explains Wigley.

Luca de Meo adds: “In future the division between work, education and pleasure will dissolve. Cities will evolve irresistibly and will never be ‘finished’.” The role of Audi in this process is, in a sense, firmly anchored in the brand slogan: “‘Vorsprung’ also includes new solutions for people in spaces where they are living. Audi wants to play a native role in the solution,” explains Luca de Meo.

And then de Meo quotes a statistical example that gives food for thought: “In many metropolitan areas, the average car speed during rush hour is a mere eleven miles per hour. That’s about the same as horse-drawn carriages crawling along – 200 years ago.” Is this the face of progress? – Of course not. This is why de Meo speaks of the networked automobile, which in future will be able to communicate with its surroundings and will be supplied with data. That, he says, is the mobility of the future.

Complexity: An intersection near the World Trade Center site in the Financial District (NYC)

© 2013 C-Lab/Columbia University

The Extreme Cities Project 2050 demonstrates the intellectual resources that are generated when a research institution like Columbia University and a technological pioneer like Audi collaborate in order to investigate future urban mobility. And capacities such as this are needed to decipher the great complexity of megacities and to establish new and better structures. Or, as Mark Wigley expresses it: “Cities are bigger than the world, because you come into the city and reinvent the world.”

The City Dossier Boston

THE AUDI URBAN FUTURE INITIATIVE

For the first time representatives of the city planning authorities of New York, Boston and Newark met with university professors to discuss future-oriented mobility concepts in the economically most powerful region of the USA, together with the architects Höweler + Yoon and experts from Audi. This was a unique, openly conducted discourse between the car manufacturer, architects and persons responsible for city planning, who provided their feedback on the project and thus made a productive contribution to approaches towards solving problems of future mobility. On one point the participants were unanimous: this task can be mastered only by an alliance of decision-makers, innovators, creative persons and suppliers of technology.

City Dossier Boston workshop in New York

© Audi Urban Future Initiative

Luca de Meo, Board Member of AUDI AG for Sales and Marketing, expressed his excitement at this visionary cooperation with the architects Höweler + Yoon. He stated that Audi is endeavoring to play a part in shaping the urban future, for which intense research and answers to urgent questions about city life are needed: “We want to understand and we want to listen. How can we improve the quality of life in cities? And what does premium mobility mean in the urban spaces?” asked de Meo.

Urban Intelligent Assist

Audi itself provides the first answers to this question: piloted driving, piloted parking and the traffic light assistant are three technologies that will enhance the experience of driving in cities in the future. Here the automobile responds to its surroundings actively. For example it uses the “green wave,” i.e. a sequence of green traffic lights, in order to get from A to B, it looks for a parking space autonomously or even takes over control itself in a traffic hold-up so that the driver can work on his or her e-mails. A so-called Audi Urban Intelligent Assist could increase safety, reduce the stress factor and raise efficiency.

In order to create an intelligent, networked automobile that can react to its environment, it has to be provided with data from its surroundings. Here the city could act as a supplier of data, for example, explained André Hainzlmaier, from Innovation Strategy at the Audi Electronics Venture. Urban data and personalized information could be made available from a cloud at all times. The aim is seamless navigation.

What can you do for the city?

City Dossier Boston workshop in New York, Alexandros Washburn, Chief Urban Designer, New York City Department of City Planning Central Office

© Audi Urban Future Initiative

Alexandros Washburn, Chief Urban Designer at the Department of City Planning Central Office in New York City, reverses accustomed roles by calling for more commitment on the part of citizens: “Don’t ask what the city can do for you, but what can you do for the city? And how can the city benefit from mobility?”

For Meejin Yoon from Höweler + Yoon Architecture, automobiles are like traveling sensors that collect data. The city can use these data in order to react better to individual traffic. Yoon is also excited by individual sharing models that go beyond the car: “You can develop different kinds of fantastic vehicles such as e-motorbikes and pedelecs, and I am sure that people in Boston and New York will love them.” Users pay a fee for these means of transport for a period of time, and when they have had enough, simply put them back into a pool from which other users benefit too. It would be a kind of premium sharing.

A platform for premium mobility

City Dossier Boston workshop in New York, Jonathan D. Solomon, Associate Dean School of Architecture at Syracuse University

© Audi Urban Future Initiative

Jonathan D. Solomon, Associate Dean School of Architecture at Syracuse University, goes one step further in making this appeal: “Don’t look so much at the product but more at the platform.” For him the decisive question is: “Who can create a mobility platform that is so good that no-one wants to leave it?” A manufacturer of premium cars, he said, must create an ecosystem in which hardware, software and services form a closed system. This system would have to function so well that people would be willing to move entirely within it and would reject other systems. According to this view a car maker should not only manufacture cars but also create a complete mobility chain including cars, trains, aircraft and much more, in order to enable ideal switching within the chain.

Switching and sharing

Defining Share

© Höweler + Yoon Architecture

Höweler + Yoon Architecture’s research results have led them to a practically based solution for the economic region between Boston and Washington DC: “Switching and sharing have emerged as key strategies for urban mobility in the Boswash region. Switching will become increasingly important as no single mobility system will be able to meet all of our needs, and we will increasingly need to switch from various modes: private car to shared bike, to shared car and public transit subway system. Sharing is already a prevalent means of using resources, including music, information, bikes and cars. Mobility will increasingly be shared between multiple users and communities of users,” as the architects explain.

Defining Last Mile

© Höweler + Yoon Architecture

The aim is to overcome the so-called last mile. In the meantime, however, the first mile and the mid-mile have also been identified as gaps. This refers to the weak points in connections between individual means of transport along a route. The first mile is from home to the car. The mid-mile is, for example, from the car to the train or from the train to the car. And the last mile, finally, which has to be covered on foot, is between leaving the car and reaching the destination. The next step now involves finding diverse solutions in order to close these gaps in the mobility chain.

The workshop showed that Boswash possesses enormous creative potential which can be activated in order to find solutions for the mobility of the future. It also became clear, however, that one factor for success will be decisive: working in association. Only through an association of private and public institutions and of creative persons and innovators can solutions emerge that will work for all participants in traffic. And ultimately, individual initiative is also called for, in accordance with the motto: “What can you do for the city?”

The City Dossier Boston - German version - Deutsche Fassung

THE AUDI URBAN FUTURE INITIATIVE

The five hypotheses “Transgenerational Capacity”, “Asymmetric Mobility”, “Complexity”, “Migration” and “Generosity” were presented during the Ideas City Festival in New York, 2 May 2013.

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In 2050 seven billion people will be living in cities: What forms of mobility will exist? And how will they be networked? Audi and the renowned Columbia University reflect the most urgent questions of future mobility with five hypotheses.

The Extreme Cities Project is an academic collaboration between Columbia University, New York and the Audi Urban Future Initiative, tasked with revealing urban potential. The collaboration partners identified five key strengths and key drivers of cities in the year 2050.

THE AUDI URBAN FUTURE INITIATIVE

Im Jahr 2050 werden sieben Milliarden Menschen in Städten leben: Welche Formen von Mobilität wird es geben? Und wie vernetzen sie sich? Diesen und anderen Fragen stellen sich die Audi Urban Future Initiative und die renommierte Columbia University beim „Extreme Cities Project“.

Deutsche Fassung

THE AUDI URBAN FUTURE INITIATIVE

Medical progress and preventive healthcare have helped to increase life expectation globally and to broaden the age range in cities. In the year 2050, two billion city dwellers worldwide will be above the age of 60 — something that offers undreamed-of opportunities. Today the active participation of older people in urban life is already part of the city scene. Thanks to flexible social and technical structures such as unrestricted access to healthcare, cultural networks and the transfer of knowledge from one generation to the next, the quality of life for all generations will be improved. The city will be enhanced as a place to dwell and live life. In cities there is open access to diverse initiatives: education, the healthcare system, cultural institutions and new fields of activity. Life in the city has something to offer for all age groups. This sets free creative energy and moves innovations in cities forward.

Hypothesis 1: Transgenerational Capacity

„The city always gathers together a wide bandwidth of people of all generations. Because of its adaptive social and physical infrastructures, it can care for people far beyond the extended family network of rural settings. As public health experts note, it is because of the city itself that people live longer lives. Improved living conditions, access to health services and education, and ease of mobility enable older citizens to thrive in the city. As life expectancy steadily grows in all parts of the world through medical advances and preventative care, the age bandwidth of cities dramatically increases.

The traditional urban strength of overlapping generations will likewise expand exponentially. In the not too distant future, there will be many more people of older generations living in the metropolis. By 2050, 2 billion people over the age of 60 will be living in cities.

Extreme Cities take advantage of this increase in transgenerational capacity. The model of childhood followed by education then work then retirement will give way to new synergies between generations, and a blurring of education, work and leisure. New urban formations will encourage these synergies and maximize their effects. As people grow older and less resilient to the stimuli around them, they become more reliant on their immediate physical environment for assistance. The extreme sensitivity of the very young and the very old to environmental conditions can be turned into a major urban asset. In fact, many health organizations, most notably WHO, feel the best response is to enrich the urban realm. They believe to create an environment that is age-friendly (navigation, mobility, and other aging-in-place services) is the single most effective policy means to address this demographic shift. Just how will the city transform to accommodate the wider range of age of its inhabitants and maximize their shared potentials?“

^{Columbia University}

Read more about the ‚Extreme Cities Project’ and the five hypotheses.

“Getting from A to B” used to mean taking a clear decision. Does it make more sense to go by train or by car to an evening event – or is it better to call it off and spend the evening at home, because getting into the city simply takes too much time. Today it can already be observed that asymmetric patterns of mobility are continually on the increase, which means it is no longer necessary to take decisions. People use various means of transport to get around day by day and also to carry out the tasks of their daily lives. While sitting in a train they can attend to their emails by smartphone or take part in a video conference linked to the other side of the world using a headset and camera. The asymmetric mobility hypothesis underlines the fact that mobility will be much more flexible in the year 2050. Changing between different modes of transport could be made much simpler and more efficient, and be more of an experience, in the future.

Hypothesis 2: Asymmetric Mobility

„Cities have always been places of flux and change. They offer new forms of mobility and freedom. Even the smallest city is a dense set of overlapping networks. People, goods, ideas don’t simply flow in predictable linear patterns. Cities create continuous opportunities for slippages between systems. This diversity and asymmetry of movement creates new connections, new potentials and new efficiencies. Since the very beginning of cities, people flock to them seeking mobility and freedom. In leaving behind the slow speed of village life for the fast-paced city, not only did individual’s rate of movement increase, the rate at which they encountered new stimuli and change as the result of movement increased. The result was an unprecedented release of human creativity and invention.

In the twentieth century, planners sought to absorb increased scales of movement and reduce the negative effects of that mobility by rationalizing it on the basis of symmetric everyday travel patterns. They assumed individuals choose forms of transportation based on predictable commutes to their work location. In this century, travel will become asymmetric, as individuals traverse multiple forms of transportation as they navigate their daily routines. Predictable patterns give way to suites of real time movement options with continuous means to slide from one system to another. Hierarchical patterns of nodes, hubs, etc give way to a continuously evolving biodiversity of possible movements. Movement patterns and behavior in the extreme cities of the future will be less predictable and more complex than in contemporary cities.

As the nature of work and leisure change, so will how people move about cities, where people move about cities and when they move. Contemporary transport systems are broadly designed to support conventional commuting behaviors, yet designs primarily for commuting patterns are already outdated. Travelers no longer only move from home to work and back again. Instead, people combine travel modes, times and destinations in spatially asymmetric ways that reflect ongoing changes to the spatial structure and economies of cities.

Importantly, cities in the future will not be constrained by a binary choice between private and mass transit, nor even by a choice between movement system and destination. Cities foster new ways to connect with people and commerce within regions and across the globe, from online commerce (substitute for retail travel), shared vehicles and telecommuting. Technological improvements in computing and communications have the potential to dramatically reduce transaction costs of movement. Travelers will be freed of constraints of ownership without sacrificing the utility of use. They will occupy multiple movement systems at any one time and slide unpredictably between them. The way in wich cities always foster overlapping and asymmetric movement to magnify potentials will be taken to the limit.“

^{Columbia University}

Read more about the 'Extreme Cities Project’ and the five hypotheses.

Cities are places where different classes, ethnic groups and multicultural ideas meet. They are all connected to each other through the city and use common infrastructure and technologies. The premise of the complexity hypothesis is that this will produce an enormous concentration of knowledge in the urban environment. For example, if the ideas and data that are present today in the rush hour in the center of large cities were to come together and be exchanged, a high degree of creativity could result. In tomorrow’s megacities even more people will live together in a restricted space. The inevitable consequence of this is increased exchanges and potential for innovation.

Hypothesis 3: Complexity

„The city is the most complex entity humans have ever created. It is full of individuals in intensely specialized roles, connected to multiple overlapping local systems and supported by massive amounts of collective infrastructure and technology that interact in massively complex ways. This biodiversity and complexity drives the growth that triggers evolution in a relentless feedback loop. Each corner of this unimaginably complex system can trigger transformative and irreversible change. When asked what a city is, architect Louis Kahn said ‚It is the place where a small boy, as he walks through it, may see something that will tell him what he wants to do his whole life’.

Cities are full of people from all walks of life, places in which different classes, ethnicities, and ideas come together. As a measure of a collective intelligence, complexity is a measure of cities. Like cholesterol, there are good and bad forms of complexity in the city. Sociocultural richness, diversity, and open, easily fixable and modifiable forms of technology produce a complexity that allows cities to be more productive and resilient. Rising bureaucracy, incompatible closed technologies, and barriers to entry produce a negative complexity, making cities more vulnerable in an era of growing threats such as extreme climate events, urban warfare, and terrorism. As systems come to rely on systems, cascading failures can occur, producing accidents like the meltdown at Fukushima, the destruction of the Deepwater Horizon, or the Flash Crash, in which a series of weaknesses in related systems creates an event that spirals out of control.

Highly complex systems, in other words, are extremely vulnerable to stress. Just as the brain is the organ that is most demanding of energy, complexity demands massive amounts of resources. When civilizations fail to meet these demands, they collapse. When they do, however, their cities are places of the most immense vitality, allowing a diversity of exchange unmatched in human history. Extreme Cities maximize complexity, and foster new forms of complexity.“

^{Columbia University}

Read more about the 'Extreme Cities Project’ and the five hypotheses.